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Risk_Analysis

This assignment consists of three parts:
1-Excel@Risk perform a 10,000-iteration simulation of the Job duration and cost and record the output distributions of total duration and total cost.

2-A full Report in Word should be between(2,500 and 3,000) words in length.

3-Prepare a Powerpoint Presentation of 8-10 slides

1. Assignment details
The Senior Management of an Aircraft Manufacturing company have asked you to quantify the risk associated with the total cost and duration of a project to design, market, manufacture and sell a new aircraft. You have been provided with a list of the separate stages (‘tasks’) associated with the project, with the duration- and cost uncertainty associated with each one. These have been estimated by them from data collected from similar tasks undertaken previously. In particular you are required to do the following:
• Using Excel construct a model capable of performing the analysis using the data provided in the Excel file Reassignment_Data.xlsx, supplied. Using @Risk, perform a 10,000-iteration simulation of the Job duration and cost and record the output distributions of total duration and total cost. [40% of the marks available]
• A full Report (in Word or pdf format) to the Senior Management that details, the scenario, the structure of the model you have created to assess the risk, the assumptions you have made and a concise and clear summary of the results of your risk simulation, drawing particular attention to uncertainty associated with the duration and the total cost. The Report should also critically discuss the assumptions that have been made as well as the advantages/disadvantages/limitations of this approach. The Report should be between 2,500 and 3,000 words in length . [50% of the marks available]
• Prepare a Powerpoint Presentation of 8-10 slides that would be used to present your work and findings to the Senior Management. [10% of the marks available]
2. Submission requirements
You are required to perform the risk analysis and to submit three files no later than 1pm on Friday 12th August, 2011.

1. The Excel workbook containing your model;
2. The Word/PDF file containing your Report;
3. The Powerpoint file containing your Presentation to Senior Management.
3. Additional Information
• The task durations are all expressed in days. Some are known with complete certainty (i.e. they are deterministic). Others are uncertain and are mix of Binary (Min/Max): Min/Middle/Max: Quartile (‘Four-way’): Quintile (‘Five-way’) and Uniform (all values between a ranger are equally likely). The values for each discrete point and the probabilities of either on occurring for each task are given in the data provided (except for the uniformly distributed Manufacturing & Delivery Task).
• All the costs are assumed to be Normally Distributed with a known mean and standard deviation, but truncated below and above, as specified in the data provided.
• Note that the costs are per day for each task and in order to calculate the cost of each one, your model must multiply the sampled daily cost by the sampled duration.
• You should take careful note of what tasks depend upon earlier ones being completed first. These dependencies are noted in the ‘Dependent Upon’ column in the data, and refer to the numbered tasks elsewhere in the list. You should assume that the first tasks start in Day 1, and that any task that depends upon one or more finishing will start as soon as the last one is complete.
• The duration of the project is the sum of the sequence of the tasks that make it up. The cost of the project is the sum of the costs of each task.
• You may have to make some assumptions to fill the ‘gaps’ in the information provided above. You are free to do this, as you see fit, but these should be sensible and realistic and you should make it clear in your report what assumptions you have made. For example, you may wish to impose some fines for late delivery of the aircraft, or set some upper cost limit that the Company would not want the project to exceed and report on the probability of it being exceeded.
• Prior to submitting your files, can you check the size of the Excel one in particular? It may be that having run the 10,000-iteration simulation that the file will have grown to be several megabytes in size. The Grade Centre (& most e-mail systems) is limited to the size of attachments that can be sent and your file may be too large. If you think this is the case, can you re-run your Simulation 100 times just before you submit your work and it should be fine. When marking your work, we will re-run your submitted file 10,000 times and should be able to reproduce your results.
• It is strongly recommended that you attempt the Practise Assignment first before attempting this one.

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